Probability as logic

Probability as logic
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At the 1988 workshop we called attention to the Mind Projection Fallacy which is present in all ♀elds that use probability. Here we give a more complete discussion showing why probabilities need not correspond to physical causal in uences, or propensities a♂ecting mass phenomena. Probability theory is far more useful if we recognize that probabilities express fundamentally logical inferences pertaining to individual cases. We note several examples of the di♂erence this makes in real applications.

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